Road To The 2017 Finals...

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yourhero
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Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:43 pm

I think we all acknowledge the significant benefit teams receive from a top 2 finish to the regular season. Sure, it's not a guaranteed pathway to the GF. You still have to play great footy and win games against the best teams... but it sure is an easier path.

I have had a look at recent seasons and what the minor premiership winning points have been as well as cut-offs for the top two and top four. Asterisk represents won position on points differential. Eventual Premiers shown in the position they finished on the ladder.

2016
1st - 42
2nd - 39
3rd - 39 (Sharks)
4th - 34*

2015
1st - 40
2nd - 38
3rd - 38 (Cowboys)
4th - 32*

2014
1st - 36
2nd - 36
3rd - 34 (Rabbitohs)
4th - 34

2013
1st - 40 (Roosters)
2nd - 40
3rd - 37
4th - 35

If we want to secure a top two spot, history tells us that 40 points will ensure that.
We are currently on 26 points.
We have a bye up our sleeves bringing us to 28 points.
We have 9 games left.
To get to 40 points, we need to win 6 of those.
Very achievable when you consider that we have only lost 3 games all season.

https://www.nrl.com/draw/telstrapremiership/ladderpredictor/tabid/10868/default.aspx

Using the NRL Ladder Predictor, I have us finishing with the Minor Premiership on 42 points. Ahead of the Broncos (40), Roosters (38) and Sharks (38).

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby Storm2016 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:38 pm

I'm targeting 18 wins 6 losses as enough to get us top 2.
I reckon 17 may be enough if we beat both the broncos and roosters in the run home.
With sharks and roosters still having to play each other twice and really only manly and broncos other dangers to top 2 spot, if we can beat the broncos this week that pretty much puts us safe to finish ahead of them.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:57 pm

Remaining games;

R17 v Broncos (away)
R18 v Eels (home) - Minus Origin players
R19 BYE
R20 v Raiders (away)
R21 v Sea Eagles (home)
R22 v Cowboys (away)
R23 v Roosters (home)
R24 v Knights (away)
R25 v Rabbitohs (home)
R26 v Raiders (home)

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby SunshineCoastStormer » Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:40 pm

Win the home games plus Knights away should do it...

Especially if we can beat the Roosters at home after sorting out the Broncos away. Nobody with the wood on us come finals.

We might be missing a truck load for The Eels but they looked pretty average v Bulldogs for large parts so that could still be winnable if we match the Roosters/ Cowboys games from the fill in crew.

Top 2 looks good. Hopefully Belly ache can manage the squad to keep the vets fresh for finals

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Sat Jul 01, 2017 5:11 pm

With one Origin game still to go, this has been our best managed Origin period - well, probably ever - at least since having the high number of QLD stars.

We are lucky that our early season results afforded us the opportunity to provide our Origin stars with so much rest. We have also been fortunate that our young guns have stepped up and done a great job.

Cronk's limited Storm game/training time has been well documented in another thread. Smith also has been carefully managed with games/training off.

I elude to luck/fortune, but Bellamy and the support staff can also take a chunk of credit for the management aspect.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:57 am

yourhero wrote:https://www.nrl.com/draw/telstrapremiership/ladderpredictor/tabid/10868/default.aspx

Using the NRL Ladder Predictor, I have us finishing with the Minor Premiership on 42 points. Ahead of the Broncos (40), Roosters (38) and Sharks (38).


A lot of water under the bridge since the end of June...

The Eels have come on strong (despite getting hammered by the Knights at one point).
The Broncos looked like world beaters when Hunt moved to 9 but fell in a hole big time last week.
The Sharks have been up and down.
We lost the Eels game without our Origin players but haven't dropped a game since.

Assuming the Top 7 teams all win in Round 26, the finals will shape like this (my tips underlined);

QUALIFYING FINALS
Storm vs Eels
Sharks vs Cowboys
Panthers vs Dragons
Roosters vs Broncos

SEMI FINALS
Eels vs Sharks
Broncos vs Panthers

QUALIFYING FINALS
Storm vs Broncos
Roosters vs Sharks

GRAND FINAL
Roosters vs Storm

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby RobbieRoss » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:41 am

Eels will be dangerous . I am hoping Cowboys can somehow beat Broncos, so we play a Broncos team coming off consecutive losses rather than a Parra team on a winning streak.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby blazza18 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:00 am

Think all 4 of the other top 5 teams all play a style that can get us on any night. Parra well below the other 3 though.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby Deadpool » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:11 pm

Parramatta lost to the Knights only a couple weeks ago. Then they conceded 34 points to a Broncos team that was completely off their game, looked like they didn't want to play at all. The Eels are not a threat

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:21 pm

Geez, I wouldn't dismiss them... The Knights game was seemingly an anomaly and the points leaked to the Broncos were after they were so far ahead that they likely just let their foot off the pedal and switched off.

Since Round 14, the Eels have only lost 1 game.

Beat the Broncos 52-34.
Beat the Titans 30-8.
Lost to the Knights 29-10.
Beat the Dogs 20-4.
Beat the Broncos 28-14.
Beat the Tigers 17-16.
Beat the Storm (minus Origin stars) 22-6.
Beat the Bulldogs 13-12.
Beat the Dragons 24-10.

A very decent run.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby Deadpool » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:03 pm

Aside from the Broncos and Storm none of those sides are top 8 teams. They're victory over us came with our origin players out. Plus they also had a game against the Cowboys with their origin players out. Parramatta are lucky to be in the top 4 on the back of an easy draw and will be exposed come finals time.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby blazza18 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:19 pm

Yep, not much credibility there.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby Storm Spirit » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:20 pm

yourhero wrote:With one Origin game still to go, this has been our best managed Origin period - well, probably ever - at least since having the high number of QLD stars.

We are lucky that our early season results afforded us the opportunity to provide our Origin stars with so much rest. We have also been fortunate that our young guns have stepped up and done a great job.

Cronk's limited Storm game/training time has been well documented in another thread. Smith also has been carefully managed with games/training off.

I elude to luck/fortune, but Bellamy and the support staff can also take a chunk of credit for the management aspect.


attended the coaches inner sanctum forum last week. cant give anything away, but management and strategy is key. believe in Craig.
Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:20 am

blazza18 wrote:Yep, not much credibility there.


8 wins from 9 starts.
6 of those wins by 13+.
3 wins against teams in the top 8.
You can only play what is in front of you and they have handled themselves well. To completely dismiss those efforts is naive in my opinion.

Let's compare to our own record over the same period.

Beat the Rabbitohs 64-6
Beat the Knights 44-12
Beat the Roosters 16-13
Beat the Cowboys 26-8
Beat the Sea Eagles 40-6
Beat the Raiders 20-14
Lost to the Eels 22-6
Beat the Broncos 42-12
Beat the Roosters 25-24

8 wins from 9 starts.
5 of those wins by 13+.
5 wins against teams in the top 8.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby blazza18 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:45 am

The Dragons had lost 4 of 6 before Parra beat them.
Dogs enough said.
Storm no origin players and were actually in the game.
Tigers had won 1 of their last 9 before Parra beat them.
Brisbane was a legit win, Game could've gone either way. Showed they were top 8 material.
Dogs again.
Knights had already won 2 in a row. Hottest team in the comp.
The mess at the Titans.
Nothing went right for Brisbane and they still scored 34 points.

Sitting 4th but have the 9th best f/a. Think realistically they are somewhere in the middle. Them making it further than week 2 of the finals probably means more about the weak comp this year than it does about them being good.


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