Road To The 2017 Finals...

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yourhero
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Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:43 pm

I think we all acknowledge the significant benefit teams receive from a top 2 finish to the regular season. Sure, it's not a guaranteed pathway to the GF. You still have to play great footy and win games against the best teams... but it sure is an easier path.

I have had a look at recent seasons and what the minor premiership winning points have been as well as cut-offs for the top two and top four. Asterisk represents won position on points differential. Eventual Premiers shown in the position they finished on the ladder.

2016
1st - 42
2nd - 39
3rd - 39 (Sharks)
4th - 34*

2015
1st - 40
2nd - 38
3rd - 38 (Cowboys)
4th - 32*

2014
1st - 36
2nd - 36
3rd - 34 (Rabbitohs)
4th - 34

2013
1st - 40 (Roosters)
2nd - 40
3rd - 37
4th - 35

If we want to secure a top two spot, history tells us that 40 points will ensure that.
We are currently on 26 points.
We have a bye up our sleeves bringing us to 28 points.
We have 9 games left.
To get to 40 points, we need to win 6 of those.
Very achievable when you consider that we have only lost 3 games all season.

https://www.nrl.com/draw/telstrapremiership/ladderpredictor/tabid/10868/default.aspx

Using the NRL Ladder Predictor, I have us finishing with the Minor Premiership on 42 points. Ahead of the Broncos (40), Roosters (38) and Sharks (38).

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby Storm2016 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:38 pm

I'm targeting 18 wins 6 losses as enough to get us top 2.
I reckon 17 may be enough if we beat both the broncos and roosters in the run home.
With sharks and roosters still having to play each other twice and really only manly and broncos other dangers to top 2 spot, if we can beat the broncos this week that pretty much puts us safe to finish ahead of them.

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:57 pm

Remaining games;

R17 v Broncos (away)
R18 v Eels (home) - Minus Origin players
R19 BYE
R20 v Raiders (away)
R21 v Sea Eagles (home)
R22 v Cowboys (away)
R23 v Roosters (home)
R24 v Knights (away)
R25 v Rabbitohs (home)
R26 v Raiders (home)

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby SunshineCoastStormer » Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:40 pm

Win the home games plus Knights away should do it...

Especially if we can beat the Roosters at home after sorting out the Broncos away. Nobody with the wood on us come finals.

We might be missing a truck load for The Eels but they looked pretty average v Bulldogs for large parts so that could still be winnable if we match the Roosters/ Cowboys games from the fill in crew.

Top 2 looks good. Hopefully Belly ache can manage the squad to keep the vets fresh for finals

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Re: Road To The 2017 Finals...

Postby yourhero » Sat Jul 01, 2017 5:11 pm

With one Origin game still to go, this has been our best managed Origin period - well, probably ever - at least since having the high number of QLD stars.

We are lucky that our early season results afforded us the opportunity to provide our Origin stars with so much rest. We have also been fortunate that our young guns have stepped up and done a great job.

Cronk's limited Storm game/training time has been well documented in another thread. Smith also has been carefully managed with games/training off.

I elude to luck/fortune, but Bellamy and the support staff can also take a chunk of credit for the management aspect.


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